Should you avoid buying a new Tacoma?

People love drama.

Even when it’s not real.

Owners of vehicles made by manufacturers that compete with Toyota especially love drama if it involves reliability issues with Toyotas. I remember when some first-generation Tacomas developed issues with leaking head gaskets. The howls among Ford, Chevy, and, especially, Land Rover owners reached shrill octaves: “SEE? SEE?” Ironically, the fact that Toyota’s reputation for building dependable vehicles is based on rock-solid real-world evidence is what makes any hairline crack in its armor take on the appearance of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake.

Recently the scenario has been playing out again with the news that some eight-speed Aisin transmissions in the new Tacoma have been failing—shifting poorly or becoming stuck in one gear, even suddenly shifting into neutral. Only now this drama has been amplified by several orders of magnitude thanks to the presence of numerous YouTube “experts” who know they’ll get a lot more clicks with a video shouting, “NEW TACOMA TRANSMISSION DISASTER!” or, “DON’T BUY A NEW TACOMA!” than they will with a more rational approach. Several friends contemplating purchase emailed me wondering if they should jump ship.

The issue is a real one, caused, apparently, by a faulty pressure-control solenoid. On the vehicles affected (often indicated only by several particular fault codes when the engine warning light comes on), Toyota replaces the entire transmission. But what are the chances of getting a faulty unit?

I did a bit of elementary statistical research, helped by the more level-headed YouTube authorities such as Tim Esterdahl. It turns out that, among the 192,000 2024 Tacomas sold, fewer than 1,000 have been affected by the TSB (Technical Service Bulletin). That’s about one half of one percent. (And we can assume a correction has been implemented in the production line.) Enough to spark glee among Ranger and Colorado owners, certainly, but enough to make me warn you against buying a new Tacoma? Not even close.

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